Win Probability Indonesia vs Japan

The match between Japan and Indonesia on June 10, 2025, at Suita City Stadium, Osaka, is one of the most anticipated games in the final round of the 2026 World Cup Asian Qualifiers. Although both teams have already secured their respective positions—Japan as group winners and Indonesia advancing to the fourth round—predictions still heavily favor the home side. According to data from various international prediction sites, Japan’s chances of winning are over 80%, while Indonesia’s are below 12%. This statistic is supported by their previous head-to-head record, with Japan consistently dominant and recording big wins over Indonesia, including a 4-0 victory in Jakarta in November 2024.

Even though Japan recently suffered a defeat to Australia, they remain the main favorites. The Japanese coach is expected to rotate the squad by fielding several backup players, but the strength of the Samurai Blue remains far above Indonesia. On the other hand, Indonesia arrives with positive momentum after two consecutive wins, but realistically, earning points in Japan will be a tough challenge. The most common score prediction is a 2-0 win for Japan, reflecting the gap in quality and experience between the two teams at the international level.

Nevertheless, there is still hope for Indonesia, especially if they can capitalize on opportunities from Japan’s squad rotation. Full support from fans and the fighting spirit of young and diaspora players are the main assets for Garuda to put up their best resistance. However, objectively and based on the data, Japan remains the favorite to win this match