USA vs Guatemala: CONCACAF Gold Cup Prediction (03.07.2025)

On July 3, 2025, at 06:00 WIB, the CONCACAF Gold Cup semifinal match between the United States and Guatemala will take place at Energizer Park in St. Louis, Missouri. Bookmakers see the tournament hosts as clear favorites. However, both teams have reached the semifinals with their share of challenges. Let’s take a look at the current form of both sides and provide a match prediction.

United States

The US national team was considered the favorite in their group, and they lived up to expectations. Still, there were concerns heading into the tournament, as Pochettino’s squad arrived on the back of four straight defeats. However, it seems the coach managed to address many of the team’s major issues, and the US was drawn into a relatively easy group. Their opponents were Trinidad and Tobago (won 5-0), Saudi Arabia (won 1-0), and Haiti (won 2-1). The result was three wins and first place in the group.

In the quarterfinals, the US faced Costa Rica. That match revealed the team’s ongoing struggles when playing against well-organized sides. Costa Rica played on the back foot throughout the game but managed to keep things even. Regulation time ended 2-2, and the US only advanced to the semifinals after winning the penalty shootout.

Guatemala

Guatemala, known as “Los Chapines,” reaching the semifinals is a major surprise. The team is currently ranked 106th in the FIFA rankings. In the group stage, they played against Jamaica (won 1-0), Panama (lost 0-1), and Guadeloupe (won 3-2). Guatemala were only considered favorites in their final group match. Still, with six points, they finished second in the group.

The real shock came in the quarterfinals, where Guatemala unexpectedly eliminated Canada. Guatemala were massive underdogs, with betting odds of over 12 for a win. However, Canada’s shaky performance and a red card late in the first half helped Guatemala pull the match back to a draw. They then came out on top in the penalty shootout.

Stats and Head-to-Head Record

Since 1989, the two teams have met 21 times, with Guatemala winning only once. Their last meeting was in 2016, when the US won comfortably with a score of 4-0.

Prediction

For the USA vs Guatemala match, the prediction favors Pochettino’s squad. Home crowd support and the difference in team quality will likely be decisive in this matchup. Therefore, the suggested bet is a USA win with a –1.5 handicap at odds of 1.78.