Uruguay vs Venezuela: 2026 World Cup Qualifier Prediction (11.06.2025)

On Wednesday, June 11 at 06:00 WIB at the Centenario Stadium in Montevideo, the Uruguay national football team will host Venezuela in the 16th round of the South American World Cup 2026 qualifiers. The home side has collected 21 points and sits in fifth place, which grants direct entry to the finals. The visitors have three points fewer and are in seventh place, potentially heading to the playoffs.

We will provide a prediction for the Uruguay vs Venezuela match, considering the high tournament motivation of both teams. Bookmakers clearly favor the home team. The odds for a Uruguay win are 1.49, a draw 4.05, and a Venezuela win 8.30. The over 2.5 goals market is priced at 2.47, indicating that analysts do not expect a high-scoring game. Both teams to score is offered at 2.67.

Uruguay

Marcelo Bielsa’s men have earned just two points in their last four qualifiers. As a result, they’ve slipped so far down the table that there’s now a risk of dropping out of the top six. To be fair, they lost at home to Argentina 0-1 and away to Paraguay 0-2.

In their last match against Paraguay, La Celeste dominated possession 71% to 29% but lost the shot count 5-12, and on target 1-5. This is something they need to address before this home fixture.

Venezuela

Fernando Batista’s squad doesn’t have the same level of quality as their rivals. However, La Vinotinto continues to fight for a place in the top six. In their last two home matches, they beat Peru 1-0 and Bolivia 2-0. But away from home, Venezuela’s form is dismal: in seven away games, they have only two draws and five losses, with a goal difference of 6-15.

Statistics and Head to Head

Since 2021, the teams have met three times. Two matches in Venezuela ended in goalless draws. The home match in Uruguay was a confident 4-1 win for La Celeste.

Prediction

Bookmakers expect a low-scoring game. However, let’s look at the stats: Uruguay’s average total goals in home qualifiers is 2.14 goals per game, while Venezuela’s average away total is 3. With this in mind, it could be wise to bet on over 2 goals at 1.83.