United States vs Mexico: CONCACAF Gold Cup Prediction (07.07.2025)

On Monday, July 7, 2025, at 06:00 WIB, the final match of the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup will take place at NRG Stadium in Houston. The game will feature the national teams of the United States and Mexico. In the knockout stage, the US defeated Costa Rica 2-2 (win on penalties) and beat Guatemala 2-1. Mexico overcame Saudi Arabia 2-0 in the quarterfinals and defeated Honduras 1-0 in the semifinals.

In the final clash between the United States and Mexico, bookmakers give both teams equal chances to win. The odds for a US victory in regular time are set at 2.75, and 1.90 to win the match overall. The same odds are offered for Mexico. Football analysts expect a low-scoring affair: over 2.5 total goals is priced at 2.21, and both teams to score is at 1.86.

United States

Mauricio Pochettino is relying on a crowded midfield line. As always, the Americans aim to play a passing-oriented, positional game with frequent rotations. In the two recent knockout matches, the key attacking figure was 21-year-old left midfielder Diego Luna from Real Salt Lake. His movements from the wing into central positions consistently created danger. Luna scored one goal in the quarterfinal and a brace in the semifinal.

In five matches throughout this tournament, the US has scored 12 goals. Only against Saudi Arabia did they win narrowly (1-0); against all other opponents, they scored at least two goals.

Mexico

Javier Aguirre’s team plays with disciplined defense. Yes, in the opening match of the tournament, Mexico conceded two goals against the Dominican Republic (3-2 win), but in the following four matches, goalkeeper Luis Malagón kept clean sheets.

The Mexican coaching staff is known for creativity and tactical surprises. One such example was the appearance of 16-year-old midfielder Gilberto Mora from Tijuana during the knockout stage. He was even named Man of the Match in the semifinal. It will be interesting to see whether similar surprises emerge in the final.

Stats and Head-to-Head Record

Since 2022, the two teams have faced each other five times. The United States leads the head-to-head record with two wins to Mexico’s one. The most significant of these was the US’s 2-0 win in the CONCACAF Nations League final in March last year.

Prediction

Mexico are the reigning champions of both the Gold Cup and the CONCACAF Nations League. In this tournament, they have shown solid and disciplined performances. Our prediction is that Mexico will not lose in regular time, combined with under 3.5 total goals, at odds of 1.82.