Toulouse vs Lens: Ligue 1 Prediction (11.05.2025)

In the early hours of Sunday, May 11 at 02:00 WIB, Toulouse will host Lens at the Municipal Stadium in the penultimate 33rd round of the 2024–2025 French Ligue 1 season. The home team sits in 12th place and is no longer in danger of relegation. The visitors, currently in eighth position, have also lost realistic hope of qualifying for the European competition through a top-six finish.

Our prediction for the Toulouse vs Lens match takes into account the fact that neither side has much at stake in terms of league standings. Bookmakers give a slight edge to the hosts. A bet on the “Violets” to win comes with odds of 2.26, a draw at 3.58, and a win for the “Blood and Gold” at 3.20. The odds for over 2.5 goals are 1.80, suggesting an average level of scoring for the French top division. Bets on both teams to score are priced at 1.65.

Toulouse

In the previous round, Carles Martínez’s team broke a seven-match winless streak by defeating Rennes 2–1 at home. The goals finally came from the forwards fans had been waiting on all season — Yann Gboho and Aron Dönnum. The Norwegian, who plays on the left wing, was even named man of the match.

This season, Toulouse have averaged 1.19 goals per game at home. That’s a fairly modest figure, in line with their mid-table standing.

Lens

Perhaps 32-year-old head coach Will Still lacked the experience needed to guide his team into a European qualification spot. Lens have been extremely inconsistent and unpredictable. For example, in their last four matches, they lost at home to Reims (0–2) and Auxerre (0–4), but won away against Brest (3–1) and Lyon (2–1). Although they are now mathematically out of the top six, Lens remain one of the league’s best away teams, trailing only PSG and Marseille in road performance.

Head-to-Head Stats

Since 2022, these teams have met five times. Lens lead the series with four wins to Toulouse’s one. None of these encounters produced more than three total goals. In the reverse fixture earlier this season, Toulouse won 1–0 away at Lens.

Prediction

With no major stakes left for either side, several factors still stand out. Lens have a clear advantage in head-to-head meetings and have performed better on the road this season. Both teams also have limited goal-scoring output. Based on these points, our prediction is Lens to avoid defeat and under 3.5 total goals, with odds of 2.29.