St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund: Bundesliga Prediction (23.08.2025)

On Saturday, August 23 at 18.30 CEST, at the Millerntor Stadium in Hamburg, local football club St. Pauli will host Borussia Dortmund in the opening round of the 2025–26 German Bundesliga. Last season, the hosts finished 14th, dangerously close to the relegation playoff zone. The visitors, on the other hand, finished fourth and secured a spot in the UEFA Champions League after an incredible winning surge at the end of the campaign.

It is clear that in the St. Pauli – Borussia Dortmund clash, bookmakers fully favor the visitors. Betting on a win for the Pirates is offered at 4.60, a draw at 4.05, while a victory for the Black and Yellows is priced at 1.74. Football analysts expect average scoring in this upcoming match: over 2.5 goals is offered at 1.78, and both teams to score is at 1.75.

St. Pauli

Alexander Blessin’s men showed extremely poor attacking efficiency last Bundesliga season. In 34 rounds, they scored only 28 goals. For comparison, bottom club Bochum managed 33. To address this, new attacking players have been brought in: Beninese striker Andreas Huntodji, on loan from Burnley, and French forward Mathias Pereira Lage from Brest.

So far, they have not impressed. In the German Cup 1/32 final against Eintracht Norderstedt, a regional league side, the Pirates failed to score and had to settle for a penalty shootout. The team registered 41 shots, 16 of them on target, but still couldn’t find the back of the net – a striking example of inefficiency.

Borussia Dortmund

Niko Kovač’s team focused this summer on strengthening the defense. Yan Couto joined from Manchester City, while Daniel Svensson arrived from Nordsjælland. At the same time, young striker Jamie Bynoe-Gittens was sold to Chelsea. The transfer strategy favoring defense seems logical, as conceding too many goals last season prevented the Black and Yellows from fighting for medals.

Stats and Head-to-Head Record

Last season, Borussia won 2-1 at home and 2-0 away.

Prediction

St. Pauli relies on a layered defensive setup, but Dortmund has always been known for their ability to break down defensive “buses” of weaker opponents. Instead of looking for extravagant betting options, the straightforward choice is a Borussia Dortmund win at 1.74.