Saint-Étienne vs Toulouse: Ligue 1 Prediction (18.05.2025)

In the early hours of Sunday, May 18 at 02:00 WIB, at the Geoffroy-Guichard Stadium in Saint-Étienne, the local football club will host Toulouse in the final Matchday 34 of the 2024–2025 French Ligue 1 season. The hosts are currently second from the bottom in the league standings, but if they win and Le Havre fails to earn three points in their away match against Strasbourg, they have a chance to stay in the top division. The visitors are in 12th place and at a safe distance from the relegation zone – for them, the season is essentially over.

We provide a prediction for the Saint-Étienne vs Toulouse match taking into account the home side’s strong motivation, which also makes them the favorites according to the bookmakers. A win for “Les Verts” has odds of 2.03, a draw is at 3.95, and a victory for “Les Violets” stands at 3.45. The over 2.5 total goals market is priced at 1.63, indicating slightly above-average scoring for a Ligue 1 match. Both teams to score is at 1.56.

Saint-Étienne

Eirik Horneland has been unable to ensure a safe finish for the club he was brought in to strengthen during the winter break. He took too long to adjust to his new role. From January to mid-March, the team endured a nine-match winless streak, which now plays a major role in their dire position in the standings.

The team’s main problem is a helpless defense, which is only slightly better than that of Montpellier – a club already relegated to the second division. Saint-Étienne’s attack is also far from impressive, averaging just 1.38 goals per home game.

Toulouse

Carles Martínez and his team are unbeaten in their last three matches, which will allow them to approach the final game of the season with a sense of ease. Yes, Toulouse was rather lucky with their end-of-season schedule, facing mostly mid- and lower-table teams. As such, they may avoid taking unnecessary risks or exerting themselves fully against a desperate and highly motivated opponent.

Head-to-head statistics

Before this season, the teams hadn’t faced each other since 2019. In the first round of the current season, Toulouse won 2–1 at home. It was a come-from-behind win, with the second and decisive goal scored in the closing minutes of the match.

Prediction

We should consider that only a win will suffice for the home team, while the result means nothing for the visitors. The difference in team quality is not dramatic, so motivation should play a decisive role. Our prediction: a Saint-Étienne victory at 2.03 odds.