RW Essen vs Borussia Dortmund: German Cup Prediction (18.08.2025)

On August 18, 2025, at 19:45 CET, in the first round of the German Cup, a match will take place between third-division side RW Essen and Bundesliga giant Borussia Dortmund. Bookmakers clearly favor the visitors, but the cup format often brings surprises. Let’s analyze the teams’ form, their statistics, and give our prediction for the game.

RW Essen

RW Essen is a club with a long history that in recent years has been consistently competing in the third division, and in 2022 even represented the fourth tier. Last season the team finished eighth in the table, which is enough to be considered a serious opponent for clubs of its level, but still far from promotion.

In preseason, the club played 8 friendlies. Most opponents were from lower divisions, leading to a high win percentage. Notable matches include a loss to Hibernian (2:3) and a two-leg clash with Augsburg, where both teams exchanged victories. Essen’s main strength is its organized defense and quick flanks. However, this is only effective by third-division standards, and against Borussia it may not be enough.

Borussia Dortmund

Die Schwarzgelben enter the new season after a short break. Last season, the team managed to finish in the top four and qualify for the Champions League. In the first half of the summer, Niko Kovac’s men played in the revamped Club World Cup, where they were eliminated in the quarterfinals by Real Madrid.

In preseason, Dortmund beat Siegen (8:1) from the regional league and French side Lille (3:2), but lost to Juventus (1:2). The upcoming game will be Dortmund’s first official match of the season. Against an opponent of Essen’s level, the coaching staff will likely treat it as an extension of preseason and may not field the full-strength lineup.

Stats and Head-to-Head Record

The teams met four times between 2008 and 2017. Borussia Dortmund won three of those, but Essen came out on top in their most recent friendly. However, these results cannot be taken into account when analyzing the teams’ current form.

Prediction

For the RW Essen – Borussia Dortmund match, our prediction favors the visitors. It is unlikely that a third-division side will pose serious problems even for Dortmund’s rotated lineup. Therefore, we suggest betting on a Borussia win with a –1.5 handicap at odds of 1.83.