Real Madrid vs Mallorca: La Liga Prediction (30.08.2025)

On Saturday night, August 30 at 21:30 CEST, at the Santiago Bernabéu Stadium in Madrid, local club Real Madrid will host Mallorca in the third round of the 2025-2026 Spanish Primera.

The hosts started the new campaign with two clean-sheet victories over Osasuna (1-0) and Real Oviedo (3-0). The visitors lost at home to Barcelona (0-3), then managed to grab a point away against Celta Vigo (1-1).

It is clear that these are teams of completely different levels, so the pre-match bookmakers’ prediction for Real Madrid vs Mallorca is obviously in favor of the hosts. Betting on a “Galácticos” victory is offered at Odds 1.23, a draw at Odds 6.75, and a win for the “red-blacks” at Odds 13.50. Goal expectancy is slightly above average: total over 2.5 is valued at Odds 1.61. However, most goals are expected from Madrid, while betting on “both teams to score” is priced relatively high at Odds 2.30.

Real Madrid

Xabi Alonso’s team is just doing the minimum so far. The opponents at the start of the season have not been the strongest, so the “Galácticos” are simply collecting points. Fans await the return of injured Eduardo Camavinga, Ferland Mendy, and Jude Bellingham. Unfortunately, Bellingham won’t be back very soon. Still, against opposition like Oviedo or Mallorca, missing some key players shouldn’t be a critical issue.

Mallorca

Last season, Jagoba Arrasate’s team performed decently, finishing 10th in La Liga. Yes, the “vermillion” side scored few goals—just 35, the third-worst in the league. But defensively, Mallorca was organized and often managed to “park the bus” effectively to pick up survival points.
Fans hope new signing Pablo Torre, arriving from Barcelona, will boost the attack. So far, his impact has been minimal, but time is needed for him to adapt.

Head-to-head statistics

Since 2022, the teams have met eight times. The capital club leads with a 6:1 record. Last season Mallorca drew 1:1 at home but lost 1:2 away. In the Spanish Super Cup semifinal in Jeddah, Real won convincingly 3:0.

Prediction

In none of the last six head-to-head matches have more than three goals been scored. Mallorca tries to “dry up” games against giants. Bet on under 3.5 goals at Odds 1.57.