Prediksi Indonesia vs China: Kualifikasi Piala Dunia 2026 (5.06.2025)

The crucial match between Indonesia and China in Group C of the 2026 World Cup Asian Qualifiers will determine the fate of both teams. Indonesia, currently fourth with 9 points, needs a win to keep qualification hopes alive. China, bottom of the group with 6 points, must win to avoid early elimination. Here’s an in-depth analysis based on current performance, stats, and tactical factors.

Indonesia
Under Patrick Kluivert, the Garuda squad shows significant improvements in defensive organization and transition play. In their last five matches, Indonesia has secured three wins, including dominant results against Bahrain (1-0) and Australia (2-0). However, the absence of key players such as Marselino Ferdinan (card accumulation) and Maarten Paes (injury) poses a major challenge. Newly naturalized goalkeeper Emil Audero is expected to make his debut as the main goalkeeper.

Indonesia’s backline remains a key asset with Jay Idzes, Rizky Ridho, and Justin Hubner forming a solid chemistry. In midfield, Thom Haye and Joey Pelupessy are expected to control the game’s tempo, while Rafael Struick and Ole Romeny are the main attacking options. That said, finishing efficiency remains a concern, with only 8 goals scored in 8 matches.

China
China arrives in Jakarta on a poor run of form: three straight defeats, including a 0-2 loss to Australia and a 1-3 loss to Japan. Branko Ivankovic’s squad also holds the worst defensive record in Group C, conceding 19 goals during the qualifiers. Absences of Liu Ruofan and Xie Wenneng due to injury, combined with mental instability among players, worsen their situation at the bottom of the standings.

Still, China poses threats through Wu Lei and Zhang Yuning, capable of capitalizing on set-pieces and quick counterattacks. Notably, 4 of their 6 goals have come in the first half, indicating an aggressive approach early in the match. However, their midfield often loses control, which Indonesia can exploit.

Stats & Head-to-Head Last Meeting:

China won 2-1 at home.

Average Goals at Home (Indonesia): 1.4 goals/match. Average Goals Conceded Away (China): 2 goals/match. Indonesia Home Record: 2 wins in their last 3 home games (vs Bahrain and Australia).

Historically, China leads with 12 wins in 18 encounters, but Indonesia is closing the gap with consistent home performances.

Score Prediction & Analysis Based on form, squad condition, and latest statistics, Indonesia is favored for a narrow victory. Garuda’s solid defense can neutralize China’s attack, while Rafael Struick’s pace and Ole Romeny’s finishing will be key.

Final Score Prediction: Indonesia 2-1 China

Reasons:

• China’s Fragile Defense: 11 goals conceded in 4 away games.
• Home Support: Tens of thousands of fans at GBK will boost morale.
• Indonesia’s Momentum: Three wins in last five games vs China’s single win.

Betting Options:

• Indonesia Win (1X2) with odds 6/5.
• Over 2.5 Goals Total with odds 1.70.
• First Goal in 1st Half, considering China’s early goal trend.

Conclusion This match will be decided by defensive discipline and efficiency in converting chances. Indonesia has the tactical and psychological edge as hosts, while China faces the pressure of a must-win scenario that may derail their plans. A 2-1 scoreline in favor of Indonesia is the most realistic prediction, though a 1-1 draw remains possible if Garuda fails to capitalize.

Key Factors:

• Emil Audero’s ability to adapt to international match pressure.
• Effectiveness of Indonesia’s counterattacks against China’s open defense.
• China’s mental vulnerability in the final minutes.

Considering all factors, three points for Indonesia would keep their hopes alive in Group C, while a loss would end China’s road to the 2026 World Cup.