Porto vs Nacional: Portuguese League Prediction (18.05.2025)

On May 18, 2025 at 12:00 AM WIB, Porto will host Nacional in the final round of the Portuguese Primeira Liga. Bookmakers give the visitors minimal chances, labeling them as clear underdogs in this clash. Let’s analyze the matchup and share our prediction.

Porto

The Dragons took advantage of Braga’s recent slip-ups in the race for third place. After their rival’s defeat last round, Porto overcame Boavista (2-1) and now hold third place outright. A draw would be enough to secure this position and earn direct qualification to the UEFA Europa League group stage.

Porto are in strong form, having won 4 of their last 5 matches. At home, their dominance is even more evident—they’ve lost only 1 out of 16 home fixtures this season.

Nacional

The club from Funchal has had a respectable season, especially considering it’s their first year back in the top flight. The Black-and-Whites secured survival in the Primeira Liga ahead of time and currently sit 13th, safely 7 points clear of the relegation zone.

With 9 wins this season, Nacional has exceeded expectations for a newly promoted side. However, they’ve consistently struggled against top-table opponents. Most of their points were earned at home; on the road, they’ve managed just 2 wins from 16 matches and picked up only 10 points—the worst away record in the league, tied with Estrela.

Head-to-Head Stats

This is Nacional’s first season back in the top division since 2021. One of the most surprising results of the season was their 2-0 home victory over Porto in Round 17 back in January.

Prediction

In the Porto vs Nacional matchup, we back the home side. Porto have the quality, motivation, and a desire for revenge after their January loss. Our recommended bet is Porto to win with a -1 handicap, offered at odds of 1.52.