Peru vs Ecuador: 2026 World Cup Qualifier Prediction (11.06.2025)

On Wednesday, June 11 at 08:30 WIB, the Peruvian national team will host Ecuador at the National Stadium in Lima in the 16th round of the South American qualifiers for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The home team has almost lost its chances to even fight for the seventh spot, which leads to the playoffs. Meanwhile, the visitors sit in second place in the current standings despite a three-point deduction.

In the Peru vs Ecuador matchup, bookmakers give a slight edge to the visiting team. Betting odds are 3.05 for a Peru win, 3.05 for a draw, and 2.65 for an Ecuador win. Football analysts expect a low-scoring game: the odds for over 2.5 total goals are 2.80, while both teams to score is priced at 2.23.

Peru

It’s hard to blame Óscar Ibañez. After joining the team in February, he immediately won his first match, beating Bolivia 3-1 at home. At that time, many were surprised by the “white and reds’” scoring ability. But then things went back to normal. In two away games, Peru failed to score a single goal. They lost 0-1 to Venezuela and drew 0-0 against Colombia.

In 15 matches played, Peru has only scored six goals. However, all those goals were scored at home. Moreover, Peru has remained unbeaten in their last five home matches, so their opponents should not expect an easy walk here.

Ecuador

Sebastián Beccacece’s side is among the four lowest-scoring teams in this qualifying campaign. How can the “tricolors” still be in second place even after a three-point deduction? The answer is simple: Ecuador hardly concedes goals. In 15 rounds, they’ve only let in five goals. The team has lost just twice and is currently on an eight-match unbeaten run. In the last round, Ecuador’s rock-solid defense shut down the Brazilian attack with a 0-0 result. The only problem is finding someone to play up front: Enner Valencia and Gonzalo Plata are both injured, while the rest of the attacking line is a noticeable step down in quality.

Statistics and Head-to-Head

Since 2021, the two teams have met four times. Each team won one match, while two matches ended in a draw. In the first leg of this qualifying campaign, Ecuador narrowly won 1-0 at home.

Prediction

Ecuador is one of the best away teams in the qualifiers. Their statistics are very minimalistic: in seven away matches, they’ve both scored and conceded a total of just three goals. We predict Ecuador will avoid defeat and that the total goals will be under 3.5 with odds of 1.61.