Paris vs Metz: Ligue 1 Prediction (31.08.2025)

On Sunday, August 31 at 17:15 CEST, at the Sébastien Charléty Stadium in Paris, Paris FC will host Metz in the third round of the 2025-2026 French Ligue 1 season. Both teams, recently promoted, are already feeling the pressure of the top flight. After two opening matches, both sit at the bottom of the standings.

For the Paris – Metz clash, bookmakers see the capital side as clear favorites. A Paris FC win is priced at 1.92, a draw at 3.58, and a Metz victory at 4.25. Analysts expect a low-scoring game: over 2.5 goals is set at 2.06, while both teams to score is offered at 1.88.

Paris

Last season, to secure second place in Ligue 2, coach Stéphane Gilli relied heavily on a defensive strategy. Across 34 matches, Paris conceded only 33 goals, second best behind champions Lorient. However, in Ligue 1 things are different. Against mid-table teams they must play for wins to collect points, and against giants, sitting back won’t be enough. Marseille already proved that in the second round by thrashing Paris 5:2.

This Sunday will mark Paris’s first home game in Ligue 1 this season. For the local fans, it should be a true celebration. The opponent, meanwhile, seems fairly suitable.

Metz

Stéphane Le Mignan’s side finished only third in Ligue 2 last season, but managed to earn promotion through the playoffs and deservedly take their place in the top division. The start, however, has been rocky. Metz lost 0:1 at home to ambitious Strasbourg and 0:3 away at Lyon. They have yet to score a goal in Ligue 1. Perhaps this is the perfect opportunity to do so against a team that also played in Ligue 2 last season.

Stats and Head-to-Head Record

Since 2022, the two clubs have faced each other four times. Metz clearly leads with three wins, while Paris has none. Last season in Ligue 2, Metz won 2:1 away and 3:1 at home.

Prediction

Bookmakers currently favor Paris as the stronger side. However, looking at recent head-to-head stats, Metz has been a very difficult opponent for them. In any case, we can expect a tense and hard-fought game. A reasonable bet would be on total yellow cards over 3.5 at odds of 1.69.