Mexico vs Honduras: CONCACAF Gold Cup Prediction (03.07.2025)

On the morning of July 3, 2025, at 09:00 WIB, the CONCACAF Gold Cup semifinal match between Mexico and Honduras will take place at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California. On paper, Mexico appears to be the clear favorite. Let’s examine whether things are really that one-sided, analyze the current form of both teams, and provide a match prediction.

Mexico

The “Mayans” had little trouble getting through the group stage. They finished first in Group A. Mexico was also fortunate with their group opponents – in all three matches, “El Tri” were considered the favorites. In their first two games, Mexico defeated the Dominican Republic (3-2) and Suriname (2-0). Against a stronger Costa Rica side, they played to a 0-0 draw, which was enough to secure top spot in the group. In the quarterfinals, Mexico comfortably handled Saudi Arabia. Notably, they allowed only one shot throughout the entire match, and it was off-target.

The Mexican national team stands out with its reliable defense. They have kept three consecutive clean sheets. In knockout matches, Mexico tends to play a very pragmatic style.

Honduras

Honduras began the tournament with a heavy defeat, losing 0-6 to Canada. However, that result didn’t shake their confidence, and they bounced back with two wins against weaker opponents – defeating El Salvador (2-0) and Curaçao (2-1). These results secured them second place in the group. In the first round of the knockout stage, Honduras pulled off a minor upset. Their match against Panama ended 1-1 in regular time, and “Los Catrachos” won the penalty shootout 5-4.

Despite reaching the semifinals, there are still many concerns about Honduras’s performance. Their biggest issue lies in defense, and in attack, they heavily rely on set pieces.

Stats and Head-to-Head Record

Since 2023, the two teams have met five times. The stats are fairly close. Mexico holds a slight edge with three wins, while Honduras has won twice.

Prediction

For the Mexico vs Honduras match, the prediction leans toward a combined outcome. The gap in quality between the two teams is clear. Honduras has little chance of breaking through Mexico’s strong defense. Meanwhile, Mexico tends to play cautiously in knockout games. Therefore, the match is not expected to be high-scoring. Honduras is unlikely to push the tempo, as an open battle would reduce their chances even further. In this case, a good bet would be for Mexico to win and total goals under 3.5, with odds of 1.82.