Mexico vs Costa Rica: CONCACAF Gold Cup Prediction (23.06.2025)

On Monday, June 23 at 09:00 WIB, the national teams of Mexico and Costa Rica will meet at Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada, in the final match of Group A in the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup. Both teams have earned six points and secured a spot in the playoffs, leaving the Dominican Republic and Suriname behind. Now, the group favorites will play for first place. A draw will be enough for Mexico to top the group.

In the Mexico vs Costa Rica matchup, bookmakers are leaning toward total dominance by one side. A bet on a win for “El Tri” comes with low odds of 1.57, a draw is at 4.30, and a win for “Los Ticos” is priced at 5.50. The over 2.5 goals market is at 1.78, suggesting an average-scoring match. The odds for both teams to score are 1.85.

Mexico

With their 2-0 win over Suriname in the previous round, Javier Aguirre’s team has now achieved five consecutive wins in the main phase of the CONCACAF Gold Cup for the second time in history. They previously accomplished this in the 2009 and 2011 tournaments, where they went on a streak of seven straight victories. Breaking that record at this tournament is entirely possible. However, the question is whether the team has enough motivation, since a draw will be enough to progress as group winners.

In the match against Suriname, it was clear that Mexico wasn’t pushing for a high-scoring win. After a strong spell early in the second half when they scored two goals, “El Tri” settled down, confident that their opponents lacked the quality to mount a comeback.

Costa Rica

Miguel Herrera’s side is clearly struggling in defense, especially considering they allowed Suriname to score three goals. In recent months, Costa Rica has also conceded against Trinidad and Tobago, Belize, suffered a heavy 0-3 loss to the USA, and were defeated in a two-legged tie by Panama.

“Los Ticos” occupy a middle ground in the region. They can’t be considered minnows, but they also struggle to compete on equal footing with the top teams in CONCACAF.

Stats and Head-to-Head Record

Since 2021, the two teams have met five times. Mexico won three of those matches, while the other two ended in goalless draws.

Prediction

Taking into account the head-to-head history, recent performances, and the relatively low motivation for both sides, the recommended bet is a combination: Mexico not to lose and total goals under 3.5 at odds of 1.65.