Metz vs Reims: Ligue 1 Prediction (21.05.2025)

On May 21, 2025, at 20:00 WIB, the first playoff match of the French Championship will be held to determine who gets to play in Ligue 1 next season. The contenders are Metz, who finished third in Ligue 2, and Reims, who finished 16th in Ligue 1. Bookmakers give a slight advantage to the visitors. Let’s analyze the current form of both teams and present our prediction for the match.

Metz
The “Garnets” were once a consistent presence in France’s top division until 2002. Over the past 20 years, the team has rarely managed to stay in the same division for more than a season or two. There were even moments when Metz was relegated to the third tier. However, in recent years, the team has fluctuated between Ligue 1 and Ligue 2. Now, just one season after relegation, Metz is fighting for a return to the elite of French football.

They finished third in Ligue 2, well ahead of their closest rivals. Metz was also one of the most attacking sides in the league, losing only to the eventual champion, Lorient. In the promotion playoff semifinal, Metz beat Dunkerque 1-0 thanks to an own goal in stoppage time, with their opponents playing more than 30 minutes with 10 men.

Reims
The “Red and Whites” collapsed at the end of the season, recording one draw and three losses in their last four games. A 1-2 defeat to Lille in the final round dropped Reims into the relegation playoff zone, as other teams managed to take advantage of their slip-up. Now, Reims must defend their Ligue 1 status through a playoff battle.

Notably, Reims had a decent defense. They conceded just 47 goals — the fewest in the bottom half of the table and the same number as Marseille, who finished second. What let them down was their weak attacking play. Samba Diawara’s side was among the bottom three in terms of goals scored this season in Ligue 1.

Head-to-Head Stats
Historically, Metz has consistently challenged Reims. Since the 2020/21 season, the teams have met six times in Ligue 1. Metz won three of those matches, while Reims won only one — at the end of last season. Two games ended in draws.

Prediction
In the Metz vs Reims match, our prediction leans toward the visitors. Although Metz had better stats in Ligue 2 this season, the decisive factor is the level of opposition each team faced. However, due to Reims’ poor current form, we recommend a safer bet: Reims draw no bet at odds of 1.66.