Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier: UFC 318 Prediction (20.07.2025)

On Sunday, July 20, at 09:00 WIB, UFC 318 will take place at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans. The main event of the evening is the trilogy bout between Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier. This time, no championship belts are on the line, but the star power of both fighters makes this Ultimate Fighting Championship night special. At stake is the symbolic title of “Baddest Motherf***er,” a label that suits both contenders.

Key Fight Stats

Bookmakers do not name a clear favorite for the Holloway vs Poirier bout. Holloway (“The Blessed”) is offered at odds of 1.77, while Poirier (“The Diamond”) is listed at 1.98. Analysts expect this fight to go the full distance: over 4.5 rounds is priced at 1.68, while under is at 2.07.

Max Holloway

In April last year, “The Blessed” delivered a spectacular performance. UFC fans will remember how he invited Justin Gaethje to the center of the octagon in the final round and outslugged him, winning by knockout. That kind of explosive showdown is exactly what fans are hoping to see again.

However, Holloway’s weakness was exposed in October 2024 when Ilia Topuria showed the blueprint to beat him. The Georgian fighter accepted the brawl but outlanded Holloway with accuracy, finishing the fight in the third round.

Dustin Poirier

“The Diamond” also fought twice in 2024. On March 9 at UFC 299, he endured a rough round and a half against Benoit Saint-Denis, taking heavy hits and grappling pressure. But Poirier showcased great durability and found his moment midway through the second round to knock out his opponent.

In early June, he faced Islam Makhachev for the lightweight title. Surprisingly, Poirier lasted almost the entire five rounds, showing incredible resilience against the elite wrestler. However, against Holloway, grappling won’t be as central to the fight.

Stats and Head-to-Head Record

The Holloway vs Poirier rivalry is already a UFC classic. In 2012, Poirier defeated Holloway—who was making his UFC debut—in the first round. They fought again in 2019 for a title, going the full five rounds, with Poirier winning by unanimous decision.

Prediction

This bout carries a lot of personal motivation. It’s hard to imagine either fighter giving the other a moment to breathe. Someone likely won’t last the full distance. We’re picking under 4.5 total rounds at odds of 2.07.