Mario Barrios vs Manny Pacquiao: WBC Welterweight 2025 Prediction (20.07.2025)

On the morning of July 20, after 07:00 WIB, the main event of the boxing night organized by Premier Boxing Champions will take place at the MGM Grand Arena in Paradise, a suburb of Las Vegas. The WBC welterweight championship bout will feature reigning champion Mario Barrios facing off against legendary veteran Manny Pacquiao. The main draw of this fight is undoubtedly the return of the former champion across eight weight divisions to the ring.

Key Fight Stats

In the Barrios vs Pacquiao bout, bookmakers favor the reigning champion. Betting odds for a Barrios win are 1.34, while a Pacquiao win is set at 2.98. The fight is expected to last about 11 rounds: the over 10.5 rounds bet is priced at 1.78, while the under is at 1.92.

Mario Barrios

It’s hard to say that “Golden Boy” is an elite representative of the modern welterweight division. In his first fight at welterweight, he lost by unanimous decision to Keith Thurman. In 2023, he claimed the WBC interim title by outlasting a faded Yordenis Ugas over 12 rounds. He then defended the interim title against Argentine Fabian Maidana, after which he was promoted to full WBC champion. Last November, he made his first title defense in a bout that ended in a draw with Abel Ramos — not the most convincing result. To be honest, he seems like a suitable opponent for a legend’s comeback fight.

Manny Pacquiao

All the talk around “Pac-Man” now centers on the physical capabilities of the veteran. No one doubts his boxing brilliance, but 46 years old is not the ideal age for title-level bouts. In fact, back in 2021, Pacquiao looked helpless against Yordenis Ugas.

In several interviews, Pacquiao insists that he is in peak physical condition for this bout. He claims he was worn out in 2021 after a long career, but now he’s back with renewed energy. Still, his exhibition fight against Japanese fighter Anpo in 2024 showed that the Filipino has aged and is no longer as sharp or fast.

Stats and Head-to-Head Record

There’s a 16-year age gap between the fighters, so it’s only natural that their careers never intersected before.

Prediction

It’s hard to believe Pacquiao can go the full distance against a 30-year-old puncher. The veteran would need an early finish to stand a chance, but Barrios is capable of landing dangerous counters. Our pick: the fight will not go past 10.5 rounds. Betting recommendation: under 10.5 rounds at odds of 1.92.