Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen: Bundesliga Prediction (17.05.2025)

On May 17, 2025 at 20:30 WIB, Mainz will host Bayer Leverkusen in the final round of the Bundesliga. Bookmakers slightly favor the home team. Let’s analyze both teams’ form and motivation to determine the most valuable betting option.

Mainz

The Nullfünfer currently sit in 6th place. Climbing higher seems unlikely—they’d need a convincing win and a heavy loss by Borussia Dortmund against the unmotivated Holstein Kiel. However, Bo Henriksen’s squad has a strong incentive to win: they are level on points with RB Leipzig, only leading by goal difference. Dropping points could cost them a spot in European competition.

Still, Mainz’s recent form is shaky. They could’ve secured a Top 4 finish earlier but lacked consistency. In the last round, they finally snapped a 7-game winless streak with a 4–1 win over Bochum, the league’s bottom team.

Bayer Leverkusen

Things are much calmer for Die Werkself, who are locked into 2nd place, 11 points behind Bayern Munich and 11 ahead of 3rd. The only motivation now might be to end the season on a high and honor manager Xabi Alonso, who is set to take over Real Madrid soon.

That said, Leverkusen have only one win in their last five matches, and the uncertainty around Alonso’s departure could impact player morale.

Head-to-Head Stats

Bayer have dominated recent encounters, winning 4 of the last 5 matches. Their first meeting this season ended in a narrow 1–0 home win for Leverkusen.

Prediction

The outcome of Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen is tough to call. Mainz are fully motivated, needing a win to secure a top-6 finish and European spot. Leverkusen, locked in 2nd place, have no pressure but may play freely in what could be Xabi Alonso’s farewell game.

Expect an open match with attacking intent from both sides. Given the stakes and styles of play, goals are highly likely.

Betting Tip: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.56

Key Insights: Mainz must win to stay in top 6. Leverkusen unbeaten in 4 of last 5 vs Mainz.