Legia vs AEK Larnaca: UEFA Europa League Prediction(14.08.2025)

On Thursday, August 14, at 18:00 UTC, at the Polish Army Stadium in Warsaw, Legia Warszawa will host AEK Larnaca in the second leg of the 2025–2026 UEFA Europa League third qualifying round. In the first meeting, the Cypriots earned a convincing three-goal advantage on home turf – 4:1.

In the return game Legia – AEK Larnaca, bookmakers’ predictions favor the Polish side, but experts believe the Cypriot club’s progression to the next round is almost assured. Odds for a Legia win in regular time are 1.65, but their odds to qualify for the next stage of the Europa League are 8.20. For the “yellow-greens”, the same markets are priced at 5.05 for a win in regular time and 1.07 to advance. Football analysts expect a fairly productive match: the over 2.5 goals market has odds of 1.67, while odds for both teams to score are 1.66.

Legia

It’s hard to say that Edward Iordănescu’s men deserved such a heavy defeat in the first leg. The “Legionnaires” actually started more aggressively, conceding first but managing to equalize. However, several defensive errors in the second half led to the disastrous result. The big question is whether the Poles can mount a comeback.

It’s worth noting that Legia began their Europa League campaign from the first qualifying round, but have yet to score more than two goals in any match. Over the weekend, the team faced GKS Katowice in the domestic league and won 3:1. It was clear that the coaching staff is trying to implement tactical changes to make their attack more aggressive and dangerous, even if it comes at the expense of defensive solidity.

AEK Larnaca

Imanol Idiakez only took charge of the team this summer, so it can’t be said that the thrashing of Legia was entirely his doing. However, the “Warriors” looked like a well-drilled unit in the home leg. The experienced Spaniard Ángel García fully displayed his playmaking skills, completing 40 accurate passes out of 42 attempts. The left-flank trio of Gnali – Gustavo – Chacón also deserves praise for creating constant danger, with their pressure leading to several dangerous and goal-scoring opportunities.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The first leg’s stats show AEK’s dominance, even if the scoreline seemed harsh: possession – 60%:40%, shots towards goal – 13:12, shots on target – 5:3, corners – 8:4, accurate passes – 386:237.

Prediction

The Poles will simply have to push forward, even at the risk of conceding on the counterattack. The suggested bet is over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.67.