Lecce vs AC Milan: Serie A Prediction (29.08.2025)

On Friday, August 29 at 20:45 CEST, at the Via del Mare Stadium in Lecce, local side Lecce will face AC Milan in the second round of the 2025/26 Serie A season. In the opening round, Lecce drew 0–0 away against Genoa, while Milan suffered a shock 1–2 home defeat to Cremonese.

Bookmakers see Milan as clear favorites. Odds: 5.35 for a Lecce win, 3.90 for a draw, and 1.69 for a Milan victory. Analysts expect a low-scoring game: Over 2.5 goals is offered at 2.02, while “both teams to score” is priced at 1.97.

Lecce

Last season, Lecce narrowly avoided relegation by beating Lazio 1–0 away on the final matchday. To prevent another survival struggle, the club hired Eusebio Di Francesco, a coach experienced with mid-table Serie A sides.

Against Genoa, Lecce tried to play openly and pressed forward, taking more shots and corners but failed to hit the target once in 90 minutes. Facing Milan, they will have far less room at the back.

AC Milan

Massimiliano Allegri’s side already suffered a blow in the Coppa Italia, with striker Rafael Leão injured in the 17th minute after scoring. His absence was felt against Cremonese, as Santiago Giménez continues to struggle to adapt.

Allegri has also demanded a new central defender, despite the €20m summer signing of Belgian center-back Koni De Winter from Genoa, who has yet to feature.

Head-to-head statistics

Since 2023, the teams have met six times. AC Milan dominate with a 4–0 record, scoring at least two goals in every match. Last season, Milan won 3–0 at home and 3–2 away.

Prediction

Given the head-to-head record and Milan’s need to bounce back, the best value lies in AC Milan total over 1.5 goals at 1.85.