La Liga Prediction: Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao (05.05.2025)

On Monday, 5 May 2025 at 02:00 WIB, Real Sociedad will host Athletic Bilbao at the Reale Arena in San Sebastian for Matchday 34 of the 2024-2025 La Liga season. With five rounds remaining, the home side is chasing a spot in European competitions, trailing 8th-placed Osasuna by just two points and 7th-placed Celta Vigo by four. Meanwhile, Athletic Bilbao sits comfortably in 4th, aiming to secure a Champions League berth.

Let’s analyze both teams’ form, head-to-head stats, and the best betting insights for this Basque derby.

Current Form – Real Sociedad

Failing to secure a European spot would mark a disappointing campaign for Real Sociedad. Head coach Imanol Alguacil, in charge for over six years, faces mounting pressure amid a poor run of results:

• Three consecutive winless La Liga games

• Lost 0–2 at home to Mallorca, a direct table rival

• Earned a 2–2 away draw vs Villarreal

• Suffered a 0–1 defeat at Alaves in their last outing
  

This slump has significantly hampered their European qualification hopes. Their attacking play has struggled, and defensive lapses have cost them crucial points.

Current Form – Athletic Bilbao

Under Ernesto Valverde, Athletic Bilbao remains true to its tradition of defensive solidity:

• Best defensive record in La Liga 2024-25

• Concede an average of 1 goal per away match
  

However, attacking depth is limited. Key forward Oihan Sancet has been dealing with an injury, often featuring for limited minutes. Additionally, Athletic comes into this match just days after a taxing European clash against Manchester United, which could impact squad fitness.

Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao Head-to-Head Stats

Since 2022, these teams have met six times:

• Athletic Bilbao leads with 4 wins

• Real Sociedad won 2 matches

• In their earlier encounter this season, Athletic secured a 1–0 home victory
  

The rivalry remains intense, with tight scorelines often characterizing their meetings. Find out more about their stats here.

Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao Betting Prediction

Athletic Bilbao’s midweek Europa League commitments could leave them fatigued, giving Real Sociedad an edge in energy and attacking initiative—especially at home.

 Recommended Bet: Real Sociedad – Over 4 Total Corners at 1.61 Odds

Why this bet?

• Real Sociedad likely to dominate possession, especially if Athletic rotates or conserves energy

• Athletic’s low-block defense could force Sociedad to rely on wide play, increasing corner opportunities

• Basque derbies are traditionally intense and closely contested, increasing attacking set-piece chances
  

Possible Scorelines:

• Real Sociedad 1–1 Athletic Bilbao

• Real Sociedad 0–1 Athletic Bilbao

• Real Sociedad 2–1 Athletic Bilbao
  

Other La Liga Matches This Round:

• Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo

• Sevilla vs Leganes

• Espanyol vs Real Betis
  

Conclusion: Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction

Expect a close, tactical derby. Athletic’s defensive structure will challenge Sociedad’s attack, but the visitors’ post-Europe fatigue could tilt set-piece stats in favor of the home side. Bet on Real Sociedad to record over 4 corners at 1.61 odds for a solid value pick.