Japan vs Indonesia: Stats, History, and Prediction for the 2026 World Cup Qualifier Decider

The final match of the third round of the 2026 World Cup Asian qualifiers between Japan and Indonesia will take place at Suita City Stadium on Tuesday, June 10, 2025, at 17:35 WIB. This encounter draws attention as it pits two teams with contrasting histories and quality, but both are eager to close this phase on a high note.

Statistically, Japan is the clear favorite. The Blue Samurai have already secured their spot in the 2026 World Cup, topping Group C with 20 points and boasting the highest goal tally in the group with 24 goals. Indonesia, while not qualifying automatically, clinched a place in the fourth round after defeating China 1-0 and benefiting from Bahrain’s loss to Saudi Arabia. The Garuda squad now sits safely in fourth place with 12 points from nine matches, out of reach of Bahrain and China.

The head-to-head record underscores Japan’s dominance. Out of 17 to 18 meetings in various competitions, Japan has won 10 to 11 times, Indonesia five times, and the rest ended in draws. Notably, all of Indonesia’s wins came before 1981. In the last five encounters, Japan has always emerged victorious, including a resounding 4-0 win in Jakarta on November 15, 2024. In that match, Japan controlled 66.3% possession, recorded 12 shots (7 on target), and outperformed Indonesia in passing accuracy and attacking penetratin.

Despite the lopsided head-to-head, Indonesia has shown improvement under Patrick Kluivert. In their last two matches, Garuda secured wins over Bahrain and China, demonstrating the effectiveness of new strategies and the impact of naturalized players like Emil Audero and Ole Romeny. Palermo goalkeeper Emil Audero shone in his debut against China, making a crucial save on the only shot on target. With no new injuries reported, Kluivert has the freedom to field his best lineup.