Italy vs Moldova: 2026 World Cup Qualifier Prediction (10.06.2025)

On Monday, June 10, at 01:45 WIB, the Italian national football team will host Moldova at the Mapei Stadium in Reggio Emilia for a Group I European qualifier for the 2026 World Cup. The hosts remain the main favorites, while the visitors are considered the underdogs of a group that also includes Israel, Norway, and Estonia.

In the Italy – Moldova match, bookmakers give no chance to the away team. Betting on the victory of the Azzurri brings a tiny odd of 1.04, a draw is at 15.00, and Moldova’s win is at 50.00. Experts expect plenty of goals in this encounter: over 2.5 total goals are given an odd of 1.38. However, it is expected that only the hosts will score, while the odds for both teams to score are set at 4.70.

Italy

Luciano Spalletti has called up many defenders to the squad, although against a clear underdog, the Azzurri will likely dominate possession. Up front, Moise Kean from Fiorentina, Mateo Retegui from Atalanta, and Giacomo Raspadori from Napoli are expected to be the main threats. The experienced coach has the luxury of experimenting with the lineup against an opponent of this caliber, especially at the start of the qualifying tournament. The question of whether some of Inter’s stars will join the national team remains open, as the aging Nerazzurri squad has had a tough season, reaching the UEFA Champions League final.

Moldova

For Sergei Cleșcenco’s team, getting even a single point in the group stage would be an achievement. Having already lost 2-3 at home to Estonia, the task has become even more challenging. Clearly, the away match against Italy is viewed only as a valuable experience to play against top-class players. So far, after two matches, Moldova has conceded eight goals and scored only twice, which doesn’t inspire much hope ahead of the game against the Azzurri.

Statistics and Head-to-Head

The last meeting between the two teams took place in autumn 2020, when Italy cruised to a 6-0 victory.

Prediction

Much will depend on the motivation of the Italian team on Monday. Clearly, the two teams are on different levels, and the only question is how many goals the favorite will score. Considering Moldova even conceded three goals at home against Estonia, we predict Italy to score over three goals with odds of 1.70.