Indonesia’s Chance to Qualify for the 2026 World Cup Based on Latest Draw

Indonesia has officially been placed in Group B of the fourth round of the FIFA World Cup 2026 Asian Qualifiers, alongside Saudi Arabia and Iraq. The draw was announced by the AFC on July 17, 2025, in Kuala Lumpur. All Group B matches will be played in Saudi Arabia, using a centralized format without home-and-away fixtures.

This round features a short and competitive format. There are only two groups, each with three teams. Every team plays just two matches—once against each group opponent. Only the group winner qualifies directly for the 2026 World Cup. The second-placed team advances to Round 5, where they will play against the runner-up of the other group for one inter-confederation playoff spot.

Statistically, Indonesia faces a major challenge. Saudi Arabia has qualified for the World Cup six times and will play at home, enjoying full support from local fans. Iraq is also a strong and experienced side in Asian football. Both opponents have higher FIFA rankings and more squad depth than Indonesia.

Even so, Indonesia still has a chance. In the previous round, Indonesia managed to hold Saudi Arabia to a draw and even beat them once. Although they lost twice to Iraq, those matches provided valuable insights for strategic planning. The current atmosphere in the national team camp is also positive, with the federation and coaching staff focused fully on the upcoming games.

The two matches are scheduled for October 8 (vs Saudi Arabia) and October 11, 2025 (vs Iraq). With only two games, every point matters. Indonesia must aim to win at least one match and avoid defeat in the other. Securing second place would keep them in contention through Round 5. For direct qualification, Indonesia needs a win and favorable results in the other match.

Realistically, the chance of topping the group is slim, but not impossible. Mathematically, the opportunity remains open. These two matches will be decisive, and Indonesia must be fully prepared—technically, physically, and mentally—to compete.