Heidenheim vs Elversberg: Bundesliga Prediction (22.05.2025)

The first leg of the German Bundesliga relegation/promotion playoff takes place on Thursday, 22 May 2025, at 01:30 PM WIB, with Bundesliga 16th-place finisher Heidenheim facing 2. Bundesliga third-place side Elversberg. The two-leg tie will determine which of these teams secures a place in the top flight for the 2025/26 season.

Match Analysis

This matchup features contrasting trajectories. Heidenheim, who were playing European football last season, have struggled and are now battling to avoid relegation. Meanwhile, Elversberg have overperformed and earned a shot at promotion through consistent form.

Heidenheim

The 2024/25 campaign was a massive disappointment for Heidenheim. After a promising previous season, they finished 16th in the Bundesliga with glaring weaknesses in both attack and defense. They scored only 37 goals and conceded 64. A 1-4 home loss to Werder Bremen on the final matchday summed up their downfall and forced them into the playoff. Their only consolation was a late surge that helped them narrowly avoid automatic relegation.

Elversberg

Elversberg come into this playoff in strong form. They finished just one point behind the automatic promotion spots in 2. Bundesliga and are unbeaten in their last eight matches. Over the last 15 games, they’ve lost just once. Notably, their season goal difference is a mirror image of Heidenheim’s: 64 goals scored and 37 conceded. The team has shown balance and consistency both home and away.

Statistics and Head-to-Head

The two clubs have only met twice before—back in the 2013/14 season in the third tier. Heidenheim won 1-0 at home and drew 1-1 away. Given the changes in both squads and club stature since then, those results are not particularly relevant now.

Prediction

Despite Elversberg’s superior form, Heidenheim have been tested against Bundesliga-level opposition all season. Playing at home gives them a crucial edge in the first leg. The quality gap may still exist, and Heidenheim will look to use this fixture to assert top-tier credentials. Our prediction: Heidenheim (0 handicap), with odds around 1.56. A narrow home win or a draw seems most likely.