Hamburg vs Ulm: Bundesliga 2 Prediction (11.05.2025)

Hamburg vs Ulm: Bundesliga 2 Prediction (May 10, 2025)

On Saturday, May 11 at 01:30 WIB, Hamburg will host Ulm 1846 at the Volksparkstadion in the penultimate Round 33 of the 2024–2025 Bundesliga 2 season. In the previous round, the hosts surged into first place and are now fully focused on claiming the championship and earning promotion to the top division. Meanwhile, the visitors are second from bottom with very slim chances of even reaching the relegation playoff zone and avoiding a drop to the third tier.

This Hamburg vs Ulm prediction considers both teams’ high motivation, but also acknowledges the superior quality of the home side, who are clear favorites with bookmakers. Betting odds for a win by the “Black-Blue-Whites” are low at 1.40, while a draw is set at 5.00, and an Ulm victory at 7.30. The over 2.5 goals bet is valued at 1.51, suggesting an open and potentially high-scoring game. A bet on both teams to score is offered at 1.70.

Hamburg

Merlin Polzin has justified the club’s trust since replacing Steffen Baumgart as head coach in December last year. Yes, the team has experienced dips in form, but in Bundesliga 2, no team shows absolute consistency due to the high level of competition.

After a poor second half of April, where Hamburg took just one point in three matches, it seemed their title hopes were fading and they might have to settle for second place. However, in their last outing, Hamburg thrashed Darmstadt 4–0 away, while title rivals Köln drew 1–1 with Regensburg. Now, the main task for the “Black-Blue-Whites” is to avoid a similar slip-up and not drop points against a clear underdog.

Ulm

Robert Lechleiter replaced Thomas Wörle as head coach in mid-March of this year. Unfortunately, the club gave the new manager very little time to save the team from relegation to the third division. In the last six matches, the “Sparrows” have won three times—the same number of wins they had in the previous 26 games.

Defensively, the team has been solid—conceding as few goals as Hamburg, the current league leaders. However, the attacking line is problematic—only Regensburg, who have already been relegated, have scored fewer goals.

Head-to-Head Statistics

In the 21st century, these teams have met just once—earlier this season, the first-leg fixture in Ulm ended in a 1–1 draw.

Prediction

Hamburg are deserved favorites, but Ulm haven’t lost by a two-goal margin since mid-February under the previous coach. We suggest a bet on Ulm with a +1.5 handicap at odds of 1.76.