Hamburg vs St. Pauli: Bundesliga Prediction (29.08.2025)

On 29 August 2025 at 20:30 CEST, the Bundesliga second-round match Hamburg vs St. Pauli will take place. Bookmakers rate the teams as fairly equal in strength. Let’s analyze who is in better form at the season’s start and give our prediction.

Hamburg

After seven years, Hamburg has returned to the German football elite. This comeback was made possible thanks to last season’s success, finishing as runners-up in the 2. Bundesliga. The board trusted Merlin Polzin, appointed in December 2024, and it paid off. The team scored the most goals in the league – 78 in 34 rounds.
Top scorer Davie Selke netted 22 goals, but in the summer he moved on a free transfer to Başakşehir, where he has already scored twice in the Conference League qualifiers.
In the opening round, Hamburg faced a tough opponent – Borussia Mönchengladbach. Playing as underdogs, the newcomers managed to earn a point with a 0:0 draw.

St. Pauli

St. Pauli finished 14th last season, meeting their minimum goal of staying in the Bundesliga. Notably, their defense conceded only 41 goals – second-best in the league after Bayern.
They had a strong preseason, winning 5 of 7 matches, and advanced in the German Cup by defeating Eintracht Norderstedt, though only via penalties. In their Bundesliga opener against Borussia Dortmund, St. Pauli showed fighting spirit. Trailing 1:3 by the 86th minute, they scored twice late to draw 3:3.

Head-to-head statistics

Since 2011, these sides have only met in the 2. Bundesliga. In the last 5 matches, Hamburg leads with 3 wins to 1. However, across the last 10 meetings, St. Pauli has the edge with 5 victories to 3.

Prediction

We predict the edge will go to St. Pauli. Hamburg needs more time to adapt to Bundesliga intensity. Our tip: St. Pauli not to lose at odds 1.63.