Groningen vs Ajax: Eredivisie Prediction (15.05.2025)

On May 15, 2025, at 1:00 WIB, Groningen will host Ajax in a crucial Eredivisie fixture. Bookmakers heavily favor the visitors, but is the outcome truly that straightforward? Let’s analyze both teams’ current form and motivation to find the most valuable betting option.

Groningen: Fighting for Conference League Playoffs

The Green and Whites suffered a defeat to AZ Alkmaar in the previous round and now sit in 11th place in the league table — just one point behind the UEFA Conference League playoff zone.

Groningen has shown solid form at home, winning three of their last five home matches and drawing once. Their only loss in that stretch was against PSV (1–3). Despite an overall negative goal difference, their home record stands at a strong 25 goals scored to 12 conceded over 16 matches.

Ajax: Under Pressure After Slip-ups

Ajax had a strong run through April and early May, but recent performances have brought back suspense to the Eredivisie title race. They have dropped points in three consecutive matches, including a shocking 0–3 loss to NEC Nijmegen, a bottom-half team.

The squad struggles with both scoring efficiency and defensive stability, conceding 8 goals and scoring only 1 in their last three matches. The only notable injury is defender Jorrel Hato, but otherwise, the squad is nearly full strength. Their lead over PSV is now just one point, leaving no margin for error.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Ajax has won the last six head-to-head meetings against Groningen. In the reverse fixture this season, they dominated with a 3–1 victory, enjoying 62% possession and an xG advantage of 3.81 to 1.14.

Prediction

We predict a confident away win for Ajax. Given their recent slip-ups, the visitors are unlikely to take any chances and will aim for a decisive performance to avoid further setbacks.

👉 Recommended Bet: Ajax to win with a –1 handicap at odds of 2.03.