Germany vs Italy: Euro U-21 Prediction (23.06.2025)

In the early hours of Monday, June 23 at 02:00 WIB, the Germany and Italy U-21 national teams will face off at MOL Aréna Stadium in Dunajská Streda in the quarterfinals of the UEFA European Under-21 Championship. Germany won all three matches in Group B, finishing first and leaving second-placed England five points behind. Italy also performed solidly but finished second in Group A, trailing Spain only by goal difference.

Due to Germany’s confident and effective play, bookmakers favor them slightly in the Germany vs Italy matchup. Betting on a German win in regular time comes with odds of 1.93, while their odds to reach the semifinals are 1.49. For the “Azzurrini,” the corresponding odds are 3.85 for a win in regular time and 2.60 to qualify. The over 2.5 goals total is priced at 1.77, suggesting an average scoring match for this youth-level tournament. The odds for both teams to score are 1.66.

Germany

In the first two matches, Stuttgart forward Nick Woltemade stood out for Antonio Di Salvo’s squad. However, in the third game against England, the coach didn’t even bring him off the bench. It’s possible the attacking leader needed a short rest, as he had also played for the senior national team in the UEFA Nations League. Even without him, the German U-21 side dominated the English team in the first half-hour, scoring two goals.

Ansgar Knauff of Eintracht Frankfurt played in Woltemade’s position. Previously used as a substitute, Knauff’s inclusion highlights the squad’s quality depth. This is particularly important in June, following a long and grueling season.

Italy

During the group stage, Carmine Nunziata’s team scored just three goals and conceded only once — a 1-1 draw against a strong Spanish U-21 team. The Azzurrini play in the classic Italian style, where defenders, not forwards or creative midfielders, earn the highest ratings. In the match against Spain, Verona defender Daniele Gilardi was named man of the match. It’s clear that Italy’s defense will play a decisive role against Germany’s aggressive attacking side.

Stats and Head-to-Head Record

At the U-21 Euros, these two sides last met in 2017, when Italy won 1-0. In 2022, they played a high-scoring friendly, which Germany won 4-2.

Prediction

Italy are strong defensively, but Germany’s attacking play is dynamic and creative. We give the edge to the offense and predict a German win in regular time at odds of 1.93.