Ecuador vs Brazil: 2026 World Cup Qualifier Prediction (06.06.2025)

On Friday, June 6 at 06:00 WIB, at the Banco Pichincha Stadium in Guayaquil, the Ecuador national football team will host Brazil in the 15th round of the South American qualification for the 2026 World Cup. The hosts have accumulated 23 points (including three points deducted by federation decision) and currently hold second place in the standings. The visitors are fourth, with two points fewer.

We will make a prediction for the Ecuador – Brazil match considering the high tournament motivation of both teams. Bookmakers give some advantage to the visitors. Betting on a win for the “tricolor” offers odds of 3.65, a draw 3.20, and a win for the “penta-campeones” 2.22. The total goals over 2.5 have odds of 2.45, which suggests a low-scoring upcoming clash. The bet that both teams will score is accepted at odds of 2.06.

Ecuador

Argentine coach Sebastián Beccacece clearly relies on an impenetrable defense. The “tricolor” have conceded only five (!) goals in 14 qualifying matches. This impressive statistic is provided by players such as Moisés Caicedo from Chelsea, Piero Hincapié from Bayer, William Pacho from PSG, Pervis Estupiñán from Brighton, and Félix Torres from Corinthians. However, in attack, Ecuador lacks standout performers, which explains the team’s modest goal-scoring. In the current qualifiers, Ecuador scores an average of only 0.93 goals per game.

Brazil

The main star of the upcoming summer and autumn will definitely be the team’s new head coach — Italian Carlo Ancelotti. Qualifying for the World Cup in the remaining four matches is not very difficult since losing a spot in the leading six is almost impossible. However, a radical improvement in the quality of play from the “Seleção” is expected from the new coach. Dorival Júnior simply could not handle the “character” of stars like Rafinha, Vinicius, and others. Ancelotti is tasked with “taming” the talented players and creating a squad ready to fight for the sixth championship.

Statistics and Head-to-Head

Since 2021, the teams have met four times. Brazil has won twice, and two matches ended in 1-1 draws. Neither team has scored more than two goals in a game. In the first round of the current World Cup 2026 qualifiers, Brazil won 1-0 at home thanks to a goal by Rodrigo, who is not in the squad for the upcoming matches.

Prediction

The obvious game model is attacking Brazil and defensive Ecuador. The lineups do not suggest anything else. Therefore, it makes sense to bet on Brazil’s victory by corners with odds of 1.67.