Celje vs AEK Larnaca: Europa League Prediction (25.07.2025)

On July 25, 2025, at 01:00 WIB, the first leg of the UEFA Europa League qualification quarterfinals will take place between Celje and AEK Larnaca. Bookmakers slightly favor the home side, estimating their chances of victory at around 43%, while the visitors are given a 27% chance. The probability of a draw is about 30%. Let’s assess the current form of both teams and give our match prediction.

Celje

The Slovenian team has been quite inconsistent lately. Celje plays open and attractive football, but this comes at the cost of defensive reliability. Notably, even though they finished only fourth in last season’s Slovenian league, they were the top-scoring team in the domestic competition. In the first qualifying round, Celje faced Sabah of Azerbaijan. That tie confirmed that their attacking style from last season hasn’t changed. They won the away leg in Azerbaijan 3–2 but lost the return leg at home by the same score. Only in extra time did they manage to edge past their opponent.

AEK Larnaca

The Warriors finished just fourth in last season’s Cypriot league, which is not their best performance. For instance, a year earlier they ended the season in second place, only missing out on first due to tie-breakers. Nevertheless, the yellow-greens secured their Europa League qualification by winning the Cyprus Cup. In the first qualifying round, AEK eliminated Serbian side Partizan. At home in Larnaca, Imanol Idiakez’s side won 1–0. In the away leg, AEK lost by the same scoreline, although they had a golden chance to win in the 5th minute of stoppage time if Karol Angielski had converted a penalty. In extra time, both teams scored once, and the tie was decided by a penalty shootout.

Stats and Head-to-Head Record

There is no head-to-head history between these teams. This will be their first-ever meeting.

Prediction

For the Celje vs AEK Larnaca match, our prediction is for a high-scoring game. This is mainly due to the playing style of the home team, who attack aggressively but leave gaps at the back. Therefore, we recommend betting on over 2 total goals at odds of 1.64.