Benfica vs Nice: UEFA Champions League Prediction (13.08.2025)

On the night of Wednesday, August 13, at 00:00 Astana time, at the Estádio da Luz in Lisbon, local club Benfica will host Nice in the second leg of the 2025–2026 UEFA Champions League third qualifying round. In the first match, the Portuguese side earned a confident 2–0 away win.

For this tie, bookmakers’ predictions are entirely in favour of the hosts. A home win in regular time is priced at 1.53, and bets on Benfica to advance to the fourth qualifying round are not being accepted at all. For “Les Aiglons,” a win is priced at 6.05, while qualification is valued at 24.00. A moderate scoring output is expected: over 2.5 total goals is offered at 1.70, while both teams to score is at 1.76.

Benfica

Bruno Lage’s side have made an excellent start to the new season. First, they lifted the Portuguese Super Cup with a narrow 1–0 win over Sporting, then secured a valuable cushion in France ahead of the second leg. In the first match, Evangelos Pavlidis was relatively quiet, but much can be forgiven given his knack for scoring decisive goals, such as in the Super Cup.
Analysts highlight the assured performance of Benfica’s defensive line, marshalled by veteran Argentine Nicolás Otamendi. On the left flank, 22-year-old Swedish defender Samuel Dahl has impressed, providing an assist in Nice.

Nice

Franck Haise’s side looked clearly second-best against the Portuguese giants. All areas of their game appeared subdued, and the players seemed unsure how to respond to such a well-organised opponent. Losing key central midfielder Morgan Sanson to injury in the first half was a blow, but it’s unlikely that his absence alone explains such a lacklustre display. Fans may now regret the sale of Ivorian forward Evann Guessand to Aston Villa. Still, for a team that challenged for Ligue 1 bronze last season, they might have been expected to show more.

Statistics and Head-to-Head

Benfica were better in every area: xG (Expected Goals) 1.87 to 0.67 — meaning they created far better scoring chances. They also had more possession (53% to 47%), more shots toward goal (14–12), more shots on target (6–2), and more corners (5–4). Their determination showed in defence too, making twice as many tackles as Nice (24–12) and winning far more of them (19–5).

Prediction

It’s hard to see how Nice can overturn the tie. The prediction: Benfica to win in regular time at odds of 1.53.