Bayern vs RB Leipzig: Bundesliga Prediction (22.08.2025)

On August 22, 2025, at 20.30 CEST, the opening match of the 2025/26 Bundesliga season will take place. The reigning champions, Bayern, will host RB Leipzig. Bookmakers see the home side as clear favorites, offering odds of around 1.25 for their victory. But is it really that straightforward? Let’s take a closer look and give our prediction for this game.

Bayern

The Bavarians begin the season as the defending champions and the main contenders for the Bundesliga title once again. Their first opponent is a principled rival who has posed challenges in recent years. However, it seems Vincent Kompany has now gained the necessary experience and adapted well to his role at the helm of the German machine. This is no longer the raw Bayern we saw in the first half of last season. The team remains highly focused on attacking football, but there have also been clear improvements in their defensive play.

RB Leipzig

The Red Bulls, on the other hand, leave a very different impression. Last season, they finished only seventh in the Bundesliga and missed out on European competition. In the Champions League, Leipzig were among the worst performers, finishing 32nd overall with 7 defeats in 8 matches. Their Bundesliga finish was also poor, ending the campaign with a run of five games without a win.

Expecting major improvements at the start of the new season seems unrealistic. Leipzig have lost one of their key players, Sesko, who joined Manchester United. While the club did make at least eight new signings, most of them are long-term investments aimed at future resale profits. Moreover, the newcomers will need time to adapt to a new team and a new league.

Stats and Head-to-Head Record

In the last five head-to-head meetings, Bayern hold a slight advantage with two wins to one, while the other two matches ended in draws. Interestingly, each encounter saw over 2.5 goals scored.

Prediction

For Bayern – Leipzig, the prediction favors the home side. Starting the season at home in front of their fans provides Bayern with the perfect conditions. Moreover, their recent form has improved significantly, which cannot be said about Leipzig. Therefore, the recommended bet is Bayern to win with a –1.5 handicap at odds of 1.66.