Bayern Munich vs Mainz: Bundesliga Prediction (April 26, 2025)

On Saturday, April 26 at 18:30 Astana time, Bayern Munich will host Mainz 05 at the Allianz Arena in Matchday 31 of the 2024–2025 Bundesliga season. With just four rounds remaining, the home side is eight points ahead of Bayer Leverkusen—only a few steps away from officially securing the title. Meanwhile, Mainz sits in sixth place. On one hand, they still have a chance to break into the top four and qualify for the Champions League, but on the other hand, they could also drop out of the European qualification zone.

Let’s make a prediction for Bayern vs Mainz considering the strong motivation both teams have at this point in the season. Bookmakers clearly see Bayern as the favorite. A win for the “Reds” is priced at 1.23, a draw at 7.10, and a Mainz win at 12.00. The over 2.5 goals market is offered at 1.33, meaning analysts are expecting a high-scoring affair. Both teams to score is priced at 1.73.

Bayern Munich

Vincent Kompany’s men disappointed their fans by crashing out of the UEFA Champions League in the quarterfinals. Now, all that’s left is to wrap up the Bundesliga title. Several first-team players are currently out injured, including Dayot Upamecano, Alphonso Davies, Leon Goretzka, and Jamal Musiala. However, Bayern’s task isn’t too complicated—they just need to finish the job in the league where they’ve been dominant all season.

Mainz

Bo Henriksen’s side had been in the running for a top-three finish in the Bundesliga, but the last five matchdays have changed everything. Mainz only managed three points in that span, making even a Europa spot look uncertain now. They’ve conceded 10 goals over those five matches. This drop-off might be linked to injuries among key defenders like Philipp Mwene, Maxim Leitsch, and Stefan Bell. Despite recent struggles, Mainz still statistically boasts one of the most solid defenses in the league. Away from home, they concede an average of 1.4 goals per game.

Head-to-Head Stats

Since 2022, the two sides have met eight times. Bayern leads the series with five wins to Mainz’s three. However, in the first half of the current season, Mainz beat Bayern 2-1 at home. Interestingly, these eight matches have averaged a total of five goals per game.

Prediction

Bayern isn’t under heavy pressure—they’re confident about clinching the title. Mainz, however, needs points and will come out to attack. Expecting an exciting end-to-end clash, we suggest betting on “total goals over 3.5” at odds of 1.86.