Athletic Bilbao vs Rayo Vallecano: La Liga Prediction (25.08.2025)

On August 25, 2025 at 19:30 CEST, Estadio San Mamés in Bilbao will host the second-round La Liga match between Athletic Bilbao and Rayo Vallecano. A trip to the Basque Country is difficult for any club, so it is no surprise that bookmakers consider the hosts favorites. Let’s review the current form of both teams and give a prediction.

Athletic Bilbao

Under Ernesto Valverde, Athletic achieved their main goal last season—returning to the Champions League by finishing fourth in La Liga. Much of that success came from their defensive solidity. The Basques conceded just 29 goals in 38 matches, the league’s best record.

Another key factor was home advantage. San Mamés once again proved to be a fortress: only 2 losses in 19 home games. However, at the start of the new season, Athletic’s defense looks shaky. In preseason, they only managed a win against Ponferradina from the fourth division, while losing the other five matches. They also fell 0–3 to Arsenal in the Emirates Cup. In the La Liga opener, Athletic did beat Sevilla, but their defensive problems were again evident in a 3–2 scoreline.

Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano were one of last season’s revelations, finishing 8th—a repeat of their historic best from 2012/13. Back then, they missed out on European football, but this time they have a real chance to qualify for the Conference League. They just need to get past Belarusian side Neman, having already played the first leg before this clash.

Following a strong preseason, Rayo also started confidently in the league. They defeated Girona 3–1 away. The starting lineup has barely changed from last season, with the core of the squad intact. Expectations are once again high for another push toward European competition, with squad chemistry as their main strength.

Head-to-head statistics

Recent head-to-head history is fully on Bilbao’s side—they have won the last four meetings in a row. Rayo’s last victory over the Basques came back in 2021.

Prediction

For Athletic Bilbao vs Rayo Vallecano, the prediction leans toward the underdog. Athletic’s current form does not inspire confidence—they are not yet in rhythm, while the visitors have looked sharp in recent outings. The bet: Rayo Vallecano to win with a +1 handicap at odds of 1.65.