Alaves vs Atletico Madrid: La Liga Prediction (30.08.2025)

On August 30, 2025 at 17:00 CEST at the Estadio Mendizorrotza in Vitoria-Gasteiz, Alaves will host Atletico Madrid in the third round of La Liga. Bookmakers consider the visitors clear favorites. Let’s look at both teams’ form and provide our prediction.

Alaves

The Babazorros started the season well, beating Levante 2–1 at home. In the second round, they failed to collect points but still left a decent impression, narrowly losing 0–1 away to Real Betis after a hard-fought battle.

Alaves are known for compact play between the lines, which helps them defend solidly. Antonio Blanco often drops deeper, turning their shape into a back five when needed. Their wingers also play narrowly, while full-backs push forward in attack under Eduardo Coudet’s tactics.

Atletico Madrid

Los Colchoneros entered the new season with a significantly reshaped squad. Diego Simeone is once again trying to prove that his team can play entertaining football, not just defensive “bus” tactics. But similar experiments last season often ended in high-scoring defeats against strong opponents. In fact, five new signings started in the first match, which has affected cohesion.

Remarkably, under Simeone, Atletico Madrid had never lost a La Liga opener—until now. They were beaten by Espanyol away, then followed that up with a disappointing 1–1 home draw against newly promoted Elche.

Head-to-head statistics

In the last five meetings, Atletico Madrid lead with 3 wins to Alaves’ 1, while one match ended in a draw.

Prediction

For Alaves vs Atletico, the prediction favors the visitors. Despite early setbacks, Atletico have an experienced coach and the resources to bounce back. By quality, they are clearly superior. Bet suggestion: Atletico to win at odds of 1.85.