Metz vs Dunkerque: Ligue 1 Play-off Prediction (17.05.2025)

Stade Saint-Symphorien, Metz
Date: Saturday, May 17, 2025
Kick-off: 22:00 WIB
Competition: Ligue 1 Promotion Play-off

Match Preview

On Saturday, May 17 at 22:00 WIB, Metz will host Dunkerque at Stade Saint-Symphorien in a crucial Ligue 1 promotion play-off match. The winner will earn the right to face the 16th-placed Ligue 1 team — likely one of Saint-Étienne, Le Havre, Nantes, or Reims — in the final play-off round. The final Ligue 1 matchday also takes place on May 17.

Metz

Metz, led by Stéphane Le Mignan, had an impressive second half of the Ligue 2 season but faltered in the final month. In their last six matches, they won only twice, with three draws and one loss, which cost them a direct promotion spot behind Lorient and Paris FC.

Statistically, Metz were the second-best team in both goals scored and goal difference — averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match, and even better at home (2.18 scored vs 0.88 conceded).

Dunkerque 

Luís Castro’s Dunkerque also stumbled at the finish line, earning just one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five games. Fortunately, an earlier points cushion kept them in the top 5, allowing them to enter the promotion play-offs.

Dunkerque’s attack is significantly weaker than the top three teams, but they gained attention in their Coupe de France semifinal against PSG, where they led 2–0 in the first half before falling 2–4.

Head-to-Head Record

• Metz won all 3 previous encounters

  • Home: 2–0

  • Away: 3–2 (this season)

Prediction

Dunkerque has grown significantly since their promotion to Ligue 2 in 2023, but Metz still look clearly superior. Their head-to-head dominance and better overall quality make them the favorites here.

Score Prediction: Metz 2–1 Dunkerque

Recommended Bets

Main Bet: Metz to Win (Full Time)
Odds: 1.70 – 1.85
Stronger squad and dominant H2H.

Value Bet: Both Teams to Score – Yes
Odds: 1.65 – 1.80
Metz’s defense isn’t perfect, and Dunkerque can counter.

Player Special: Georges Mikautadze to Score Anytime
Odds: 2.50 – 2.90
Metz’s top scorer and set-piece taker.