Genoa vs Lecce: Serie A Prediction (23.08.2025)

On Saturday, August 23 at 18:30 CEST, at the Luigi Ferraris Stadium in Genoa, the local club will host Lecce in the opening round of the 2025-2026 Italian Serie A. Last season, both teams were in the lower part of the table. The hosts finished in 13th place, while the visitors narrowly avoided relegation on the final matchday, ending up in 17th position.

In the Genoa – Lecce match, bookmakers give a noticeable advantage to the home team. Betting odds are 2.02 for a Genoa win, 3.32 for a draw, and 4.15 for a Lecce victory. The over 2.5 goals market is priced at 2.35, which suggests that analysts expect a low-scoring match with few goal chances. Odds for both teams to score are set at 2.04.

Genoa

Last season, Patrick Vieira managed to keep the team afloat and safely away from the relegation zone by the end of the campaign. However, this summer the management held a major sell-off, sending several key players to top Italian clubs. How this will affect the quality of play remains uncertain. In return, players of a lower level were brought in, most of them on loan. It looks like the club has switched to strict cost-saving mode. Nevertheless, Genoa performed decently in preseason friendlies and already managed to defeat Vicenza Virtus 3-0 in the Coppa Italia round of 1/32.

Lecce

Considering last season’s results, Marco Giampaolo’s dismissal as head coach was understandable. He was replaced by Eusebio Di Francesco. In addition, the club carried out an active clear-out of players who had failed to deliver in the previous campaign. To compensate, several young players were brought in. Judging by the squad, Lecce may be one of the youngest teams in this season’s Serie A. How effective this strategy will be will become clear after a few rounds.

Stats and Head-to-Head Record

Since 2023, the teams have met four times. Genoa won twice, Lecce once, and one match ended in a goalless draw. Last season, one match finished 0-0, while Genoa won the other 2-1 at home.

Prediction

This is a clash between two teams that are likely to once again fight for survival in Serie A. That makes the result of this direct encounter especially important. Three points here would provide a strong boost for the rest of the campaign. Genoa’s squad looks more balanced and experienced, so we predict a Genoa victory at odds of 2.02.