Iga Swiatek vs Jasmine Paolini: Cincinnati WTA Prediction (18.08.2025)

On Monday, August 18, after 22:00 CEST, the final match of the Cincinnati WTA 1000 will take place on the Center Court of the Lindner Family Tennis Center in Mason between Iga Swiatek and Jasmine Paolini. The 24-year-old Pole is currently ranked third in the world, and with a victory will rise to second place. The 29-year-old Italian is ranked ninth, but if she wins the trophy she will move up to seventh, while even in case of defeat she will climb to eighth.

In the Swiatek – Paolini final, bookmakers’ predictions are fully on the side of the Polish player. A bet on Iga’s victory is offered at odds of 1.18, while a win for Jasmine is valued at 4.85. Analysts do not expect a particularly long match: the total games over 20.5 is priced at 1.95, and under 20.5 at 1.79. The most likely set score is considered 2:0 in favor of Swiatek, with odds of 1.61.

Iga Swiatek

From 2022 to 2024, the Pole won at least five prestigious titles each season. In 2025, so far she has only the Wimbledon trophy, and she seems determined to fix this “shortcoming” during the autumn hard-court swing. In Cincinnati, Iga faced little resistance. On her way to the final she defeated:

• Anastasia Potapova (Russia, 45) 6:1, 6:4
  
• Marta Kostyuk (Ukraine, 27) – walkover
  
• Sorana Cirstea (Romania, 138) 6:4, 6:3
  
• Anna Kalinskaya (Russia, 34) 6:3, 6:4
  
• Elena Rybakina (Kazakhstan, 10) 7:5, 6:3

Only the Kazakhstani player managed to create a semblance of competition in one set. No wonder the bookmakers are so confident in Swiatek’s triumph in the final.

Jasmine Paolini

For the Italian, hard courts are not her strongest surface, though she has made serious progress in recent years. In Cincinnati, she had to go through several tough battles, knocking out:

• Maria Sakkari (Greece, 65) 7:6, 7:6
  
• Ashlyn Krueger (USA, 35) 7:6, 6:1
  
• Barbora Krejcikova (Czech Republic, 80) 6:1, 6:2
  
• Coco Gauff (USA, 2) 2:6, 6:4, 6:3
  
• Veronika Kudermetova (Russia, 36) 6:3, 6:7, 6:3

In the semifinal, Jasmine failed to close out the second set, exposing some weaknesses in her game.

Stats and Head-to-Head Record

The players have met six times, with the Italian managing to take only one set. This summer in Bad Homburg on grass, Iga defeated her opponent 6:1, 6:3.

Prediction

For both Iga and Jasmine, results largely depend on their emotional state, so anything can happen on court. However, the Pole looks too strong throughout this tournament. Therefore, we recommend betting on Swiatek’s game handicap of -4.5 at odds of 1.67.