Porto vs Guimarães: Portuguese League Prediction (12.08.2025)

In the early hours of Tuesday, August 12, at 2:45 a.m WIB, at the Estádio do Dragão in Porto, the home side will host Vitória Guimarães in the first round of the 2025–26 Portuguese Primeira Liga. Last season’s bronze medalists will face the team that finished sixth.

In the Porto vs Guimarães clash, bookmakers lean toward the home side. A bet on the Dragons’ victory is offered at 1.66, a draw at 4.05, and a win for the Conquistadors at 4.90. The over 2.5 goals market is priced at 1.90, suggesting an expectation of moderate scoring. Both teams to score is offered at 1.89.

Porto

Had the team performed well at the FIFA Club World Cup in June, the club’s management might have kept Martín Anselmi as head coach. But in America, the Dragons failed to win a single match and did not advance to the playoffs. Coupled with a mediocre domestic season, it was no surprise that by July a new head coach had arrived — Italian manager Francesco Farioli. Once again, Porto’s leadership opted for a very young specialist.

In pre-season friendlies under the new coach, the Blue and Whites defeated Twente (2–1) and Atlético Madrid (1–0). The club was active in the summer transfer window, so fans expect Porto to return to the title fight with Benfica and Sporting. To do that, they need a strong start to the season.

Guimarães

The Conquistadors also have a new head coach — 36-year-old Luís Pinto. It’s clear that neither the fans nor the club’s management were pleased with how Vitória let slip a spot in the European qualification places last season. A home defeat to relegated SC Farense in the decisive match was likely the main reason for Luís Freire’s dismissal. The new coach has already led the team in nine pre-season friendlies over the past month. It remains to be seen how this will affect the players’ physical condition.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Since 2023, the teams have met eight times, with Porto leading the series 6–1. The most recent meeting was at the Estádio do Dragão in February during the second half of last season’s Primeira Liga, when Vitória managed to secure a 1–1 draw.

Prediction

It will be interesting to see how the revamped Dragons perform. We’ll give them the benefit of the doubt and back Porto to win at odds of 1.66.