Qarabag vs Shkëndija: UEFA Champions League Prediction (12.08.2025)

On Tuesday, August 12, at 21:00 Astana time, at the Azersun Arena in Baku, Qarabag from Agdam will host Shkëndija from Tetovo in the return leg of the UEFA Champions League 2025–2026 third qualifying round. In the first match in Skopje, the Azerbaijani side earned a narrow 1–0 victory.

For the second leg, bookmakers give Shkëndija virtually no chance of advancing to the final stage of qualification. Betting on the “Horsemen” to win in regular time at home is offered at odds of 1.28, while wagers on them to progress to the fourth qualifying round are not being accepted at all. For the “Red-and-Blacks,” the same markets stand at 11.00 and 20.00, respectively. A more open game is expected compared to the first leg: over 2.5 total goals is priced at 1.70, while both teams to score is offered at 2.17.

Qarabag

Under Gurban Gurbanov, Qarabag have yet to concede a goal in their three UEFA Champions League qualifying matches. This could be attributed to the level of opposition—Irish side Shelbourne and North Macedonian club Shkëndija—but the disciplined defensive work and strong holding midfield play of the Agdam team should also be acknowledged.
Credit must also go to Polish goalkeeper Mateusz Kochalski, who at the start of the year was not even the team’s first-choice keeper. In the match in Skopje, the Pole made at least one crucial save to preserve the clean sheet.

Shkëndija

Jaton Beqiri’s side faced similar odds in their away match against Steaua Bucharest in the previous qualifying round. On that occasion, they managed a comeback 2–1 victory, having already won the home leg 1–0. This time, however, the situation is reversed. Counterattacking football is unlikely to be an option. Playing a tight, scrappy game in midfield makes little sense—they need to attack and score. Moreover, their opponent is more than capable of matching that physical style, breaking up play with small fouls, slowing the tempo, and provoking mistakes.

Statistics and Head-to-Head

Qarabag’s statistical edge in the first leg was not overwhelming: they led in shots toward goal 19–17, corners 7–6, and possession 55% to 45%. However, in shots on target, Shkëndija had the advantage—7–6.

Prediction

The visitors have nothing to lose—they must attack and score. This will give the hosts excellent opportunities to hit back on the counter. Taking advantage of a decent price, the prediction is both teams to score at odds of 2.17.