Lausanne vs Astana: Europa Conference League Prediction (07.08.2025)

On August 7, 2025, at 20:15 CET, the first leg of the Europa Conference League qualification semi-finals will be played between Lausanne and Astana. Bookmakers see the Swiss side as favourites in this tie. According to the odds for the upcoming match, the likelihood of a home win is estimated at 61%, while the visitors are given no more than a 16% chance of success. A draw is priced at around 23%.

Astana’s chances look even slimmer over two legs, with odds of 1.40 versus 2.96 to reach the next round. Let’s see whether the matchup is really so one-sided and offer our prediction for the game.

Lausanne

In last season’s Swiss championship, Lausanne finished sixth in the regular season standings, edging out St. Gallen only on tiebreakers. They looked rather weak in the championship round — earning just 3 wins from 10 games. Still, it was enough to overtake Luzern, who ran out of steam and dropped from fourth to sixth place.

There were no major changes to the squad in the transfer market, so team chemistry could be a key strength for Lausanne. However, they have once again made an unconvincing start to the new league season — only managing to squeeze past Winterthur (3–2) with a man advantage, and losing their most recent game to Thun. In the previous Conference League qualifying round, Peter Zeidler’s men faced Vardar. After a 1–2 loss away in Macedonia, Lausanne hit back emphatically at home, thrashing their opponents 5–0.

Astana

Astana have also not made many changes to their core squad. The Kazakhstan Premier League is at its halfway point, so the current roster’s capability is clear. The team are fighting for first place and are the most attacking side in the domestic league. However, Grigory Babayan’s men are strongest at home. Away from home, they tend to play much more defensively. Notably, Astana have lost only once in their last 11 matches.

This season Astana began their European campaign in the second qualifying round of the Conference League, facing Zimbru of Moldova. The first match in Kazakhstan ended 1–1, but Astana were more clinical away, converting both shots on target into goals. Still, that victory owed much to their goalkeepers — Čondrić made four saves up to the 85th minute, and substitute Seisen made four more late saves.

Stats and Head-to-Head Record

There is no head-to-head history. The teams will be meeting for the first time.

Prediction

In the Lausanne – Astana match, we expect a low-scoring outcome. Despite the hosts’ inconsistency and recent high-scoring matches, we anticipate the visitors will stick to their usual defensive tactics. Therefore, betting on under 3 total goals at odds of 1.58 looks appealing.