Taylor Fritz vs Carlos Alcaraz: Wimbledon ATP Prediction (11.07.2025)

On Friday, July 11, after 19:30 WIB, Taylor Fritz will face Carlos Alcaraz Garfia in the men’s singles semifinal of Wimbledon 2025, held at Centre Court, All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club, London. The 27-year-old American is ranked fifth in the ATP world rankings, while the 22-year-old Spaniard holds the second spot.

In the Fritz vs Alcaraz matchup, bookmakers give the American very little chance. A bet on Fritz to win comes with odds of 4.94, while Alcaraz’s win is priced at a low 1.12. However, experts believe the favorite may not finish the match in just three sets. A bet on total sets over 3.5 is offered at 1.66, while under 3.5 is at 2.14. Some resistance from the underdog is expected, with the projected average total games around 38.5.

Taylor Fritz

It seems the American has already pushed his limits in this grass-court season. Titles in Stuttgart and Eastbourne were great additions to his trophy collection. Reaching the Wimbledon semifinals is also the best result of his career at this Grand Slam. However, fate has placed him against the two-time defending champion in the semis. Prior to that, Fritz defeated:

• Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (France, 36): 6-7, 6-7, 6-4, 7-6, 6-4
• Gabriel Diallo (Canada, 40): 3-6, 6-3, 7-6, 4-6, 6-3
• Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (Spain, 27): 6-4, 6-3, 6-7, 6-1
• Jordan Thompson (Australia, 44): 6-1, 3-0 (opponent retired due to injury)
• Karen Khachanov (Russia, 20): 6-3, 6-4, 1-6, 7-6

However, a red flag appeared in his last match. After a poor third set, Fritz required a medical timeout. The intense schedule over the past month is starting to take a toll.

Carlos Alcaraz

The Spaniard seems determined to defend his Wimbledon title for the second straight year. So far, he’s bulldozed through his opponents with ease. On his way to the semifinals, he defeated:

• Fabio Fognini (Italy, 138): 7-5, 6-7, 7-5, 2-6, 6-1
• Oliver Tarvet (UK, 733): 6-1, 6-4, 6-4
• Jan-Lennard Struff (Germany, 125): 6-1, 3-6, 6-4, 6-4
• Andrey Rublev (Russia, 14): 6-7, 6-3, 6-4, 6-4
• Cameron Norrie (UK, 61): 6-2, 6-3, 6-3

In his recent matches, Alcaraz has been especially ruthless. Even when he drops a set, he wins the others convincingly—grabbing a break and calmly closing out matches.

Stats and Head-to-Head Record

The players met once in 2023 and once in 2024 on hard court, with the Spaniard winning both matches in straight sets.

Prediction

Taylor Fritz clearly looks fatigued after putting in great effort in Stuttgart and Eastbourne. Meanwhile, the favorite appears extremely confident. We’re backing Carlos Alcaraz with a -4.5 game handicap at odds of 1.69.